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Tough start awaits for promoted trio, with Premier League matches against last season’s top three and European qualifiersCoventry signed off their previous Premier League campaign with a match against Bradford City, the one team to finish below them in 2000-01. They pick up again in the top flight away to Arsenal; last season’s champions, favourites to retain the crown and the No 1 ranked side in the world according to Opta.At least they will have played what should be the hardest fixture of their 38 first. Except that their next away trip takes them to the Etihad Stadium to face Manchester City.Coventry’s home game with fellow promoted side Hull, which falls between these daunting trips, will feel very welcome, even if both meetings last season ended in goalless draws. It will be just as vital to the visitors. Hull begin the season by hosting Manchester United, then welcome Aston Villa to the MKM Stadium in week three.Those sides are a step below Arsenal and City but they will be competing in the Champions League this season. While Hull’s opponents in weeks four and five are not in Europe, they are Chelsea and Newcastle. It makes for a tough opening five games before the first international break of the season.In light of them facing big clubs who underachieved in 2025-26, a look at wage bills may be a fairer way to assess the difficulty of opponents. It does not make the opening five fixtures appear any easier for the promoted sides, who all feature in the seven hardest sets by this measure.Opta’s average opponent rating gives Ipswich the easiest first five matches of the promoted sides. Yet unlike Coventry or Hull, their first three are all against clubs that finished in the top seven of the 2025-26 Premier League: Sunderland, Manchester United and Liverpool. However you choose to assess opposition strength, the start of the season looks ominous.Such matches are often portrayed as unimportant to top-flight new boys. That they are a free hit, an opportunity to collect unlikely points. If you lose, so what? It’s what everyone expected anyway. Beating your direct relegation rivals is what matters. Recent history suggests the harder games are more important than cliche dictates, even if we cannot be certain at this point which clubs will be in the European qualification places next May.Leeds took a very creditable 10 points from matches against the top seven last season. That was five fewer than Arsenal, albeit from two extra games. Seventh-placed Sunderland also did well, taking nine points from the sides that finished above them. Even Burnley, who were unable to retain their Premier League status, earned eight points in 14 clashes with the top seven.The six promoted sides from the preceding two seasons, all of whom were relegated, did not perform as well. Ipswich won six points from the leading seven sides in 2024-25, though Leicester and Southampton took one apiece. It was a similar story the season before, as Luton claimed five points while Sheffield United (two) and Burnley (one) took very little of note from the top teams. If you are keeping count, you will have noticed each trio collectively earned eight points, fewer than Leeds or Sunderland alone last season.Maybe this is irrelevant. Burnley’s eight points from the top seven counted for little when they took 14 from their other 24 matches. Wolves, while not promoted, had a nine-11 points split between the facing the top septet and the teams eighth or lower too. But starting badly increases pressure on a manager, no matter the level of expectation. The fixture computer has not treated Coventry, Hull or Ipswich kindly.

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Oli McBurnie hoists the Championship playoff trophy high and Hull will need him to retain his scoring touch in the Premier League. Photograph: Tom Jenkins/The GuardianPlayoff winners are expected to go back down, but their owner is optimistic and is investing in the squadGuardian writers’ predicted position: 20th (NB: this is not necessarily Louise Taylor’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)Last season’s position: 6th (Championship)It is no exaggeration to say that Hull’s playoff triumph in May was a shock. They had, after all, started the season as Championship relegation favourites and operated under a transfer embargo throughout the campaign. Moreover, they conceded 66 league goals, the fourth-highest, along the way. Now another minor miracle will surely be required if Premier League survival is to be secured.Much may hinge on Oli McBurnie, the scorer of 19 goals last season, succeeding where he has struggled in the past and retaining his scoring touch in the top tier, but there is no lack of optimism in East Yorkshire. “Think about us like a volcano,” says Hull’s owner, Acun Ilicali. “It’s boiling right now and it’s going to erupt.”Hull intend following Sunderland’s template last summer by making 14 new signings, albeit on a significantly smaller budget. So far 11 – Jack Butland, Hidemasa Morita, Matt Targett, Óscar Zambrano, Jens Hjertø-Dahl, Elliot Stroud, Konstantinos Tzolakis, Lucas Herrington, Joe Gelhardt, Lucas Gourna-Douath and the club record buy, the central defender Nobel Mendy, who has arrived from Rayo Vallecano for just over £20m – have arrived.“The transfer market is very slow,” said the manager, Sergej Jakirovic, who covets the Sunderland striker Wilson Isidor and last season’s 23-goal Championship top scorer, Swansea’s Zan Vipotnik. “But, in the last seven days of the window, it will become very, very quick.”His cause has been hindered by pre-season injuries, with perhaps the biggest blow involving an arm problem suffered by Butland. It threatens to keep the former Rangers goalkeeper, who had impressed in friendlies, out until Christmas. The consensus is that Hull will have long since become a lost cause by then, but, much as the impressive Jakirovic needs new faces and Premier League nous, he does hold one ace card. Hull boast an exceptionally powerful team spirit driven by exemplary on-field leaders, including the veteran central defender John Egan. Maybe, just maybe, it can, once again, transport them further than anyone believes possible.In June, the playoff winners faced kicking off the new Premier League season handicapped by a near certain six-point deduction. A club that spent last season under a two-window English Football League transfer embargo avoided it by selling their goalkeeper Ivor Pandur and midfielder Aidon Shehu to Rangers and Panathinaikos respectively for a combined £8.5m. Access to the fruits of the top tier’s broadcast deal has since made Hull a whole lot wealthier, but Ilicali has pledged not to risk the club’s future by overspending and, at the time of writing, has invested around £78m on the new players.Unpredictable and slightly conflicted. Aidon Shehu, the Turkish sports reporter turned media mogul – who is on his fifth manager since taking control in early 2022 – was offered a wholesale welcome when he took over from the unpopular Allam family, but he now exerts much more of a polarising effect on supporters. If November 2022, when he treated 320 fans to an all-expenses-paid week’s holiday at a luxury resort hotel in Antalya represented a high point, a nadir arrived when late payments resulted in Hull being placed under a transfer embargo last season. Nonetheless, the playoff triumph ensures many are prepared to offer the 57-year-old the benefit of the doubt.The Mostar-born, 49-year-old Jakirovic has Bosnian and Croatian citizenship and says his life was shaped by the 1990s Balkan war that broke out when he was 14. “It was life or death,” he has said. “It has made me the person I am today.” Shortly after his arrival from Turkey’s Kayserispor, in June 2025, Hull were placed under a transfer embargo, but, defying widespread predictions of imminent relegation, he led the team to sixth place before beating Middlesbrough in the Championship playoff final. A central midfielder or central defender in his playing days, the former Bosnia and Herzegovina international led Dinamo Zagreb to the Croatian League and Cup double in 2024.The Japan defensive midfielder Hidemasa Morita joined from Sporting Lisbon after four trophy-laden years in Portugal. A fans’ favourite in Lisbon, he played regular Champions League football last season as Sporting reached the quarter-finals and has 40 senior international caps. Morita could have stayed in Lisbon, but opted not to renew his contract in order to experience Premier League football. Hull fended off competition from Ipswich for the signature of the 31-year-old who was a key part of the Japan squad at Qatar 2022. Morita is the second Japanese player to represent Hull and his amalgam of experience and quality in a key position promise to prove invaluable.The strangest part of the Championship playoffs might not have been the Southampton spying scandal. Hull were second-bottom for expected points, 53.1, and would have been relegated if underlying performances determined results. It was remarkable tthey won promotion and it will be even more surprising if they make a serious fist of staying up.The 22-year-old central defender Charlie Hughes was Hull’s young player of the year last season and his assurance in possession and excellent passing range are bound to catch all sorts of Premier League eyes. Helpfully, his ballplaying ability is matched by some equally impressive – and combative – defending. After spending his youth in the academies of Liverpool and Manchester City, Hughes joined Wigan, leaving for Hull last summer. An imposing blend of steel and silk, a defender also comfortable in central midfield will miss the start of the season after hernia surgery. Happily, Hughes is expected back by early autumn at the latest and appears integral to the team’s survival hopes.Not content with helping Hull win the most unexpected of promotions, the Canada winger Liam Millar headed across the Atlantic to the World Cup. He made three appearances at the tournament as they reached the knockout stage, losing to Morocco in the round of 16. Given his career seemed in real jeopardy when he suffered a serious knee injury shortly after joining Hull in 2024, inclusion in Canada’s squad represented the fulfilment of an unlikely looking dream. “It was an unbelievable experience,” said the 26-year-old. “I’ve never seen Canada the way it was, I’ve never seen so many red shirts in Vancouver and Toronto. We want to inspire the next generation and I think we did Canada proud.”

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Sunderland and Leeds defied the odds and stayed up last season. Will Coventry, Hull and Ipswich continue the trend?A quarter of a century after their last appearance in the Premier League – following financial ruin, ground-sharing in Northampton and Birmingham and even a spell in League Two – Coventry have finally completed their comeback story. But the bunting has been packed away and they now face the daunting task of proving they belong in the top flight.Frank Lampard is not starting from scratch. Coventry’s success last season was a collective effort and a product of smart recruitment over the past few years. The result was a side that overwhelmed the Championship with a fearless front-footed approach without relying on a single scorer. Seven Coventry players scored seven or more league goals.They led the division for shots on target; they ranked second for big chances created, touches in the opposition’s final third and touches in the penalty area; and they produced direct attacking speed and passes-per-sequence numbers comparable to some of the Premier League’s most direct sides, including Brentford and Bournemouth.The title was wrapped up with three games to spare; they conceded the fewest goals in the division (45 in 46 games), and their 97-goal haul was the fourth highest in a 46-game Championship season, behind only Fulham in 2021–22, Bournemouth in 2014–15 and Reading in 2005–06. Given the success Fulham and Bournemouth have enjoyed in recent years, Coventry will hope that proves a good omen.Continuity is going to be central to their hopes of survival. They are not following in the footsteps of Sunderland, who spent around £155m last summer. Coventry’s net spend was around £3.5m last summer and just 17% of minutes on the pitch last season went to newcomers. Their best business in the transfer window was holding on to players such as Jack Rudoni and Milan van Ewijk, who were attracting interest from top-flight clubs.They have not gone wild this summer but they have invested. Coventry have signed centre-back Aurèle Amenda from Eintracht Frankfurt, winger Loum Tchaouna from Burnley, and midfielder Caleb Yirenkyi from Nordsjaelland while also securing permanent deals for Frank Onyeka and Carl Rushworth, who were both at the club last season. They have also brought back former favourite Gustavo Hamer after his spell at Sheffield United.Lampard’s biggest challenge will be adapting a style built to dominate in the Championship into one capable of surviving the Premier League. Their direct, attacking approach will be riskier against opponents who possess the pace, quality and tactical sophistication to punish a rushed pass or a risky vertical ball.Coventry will not have the same territorial control or volume of chances they enjoyed last season either – they need players who can get them up the pitch. Haji Wright’s pace and ability to attack space should be valuable, but Ellis Simms, who tends to thrive attacking the penalty box, will need service.The fact that Hull City are playing in the Premier League this season borders on miraculous. This is a side that survived relegation to League One on goal difference the season before last, entered last season under a transfer embargo, scraped into the playoffs by beating Norwich on the final day of the season, and scored a stoppage time winner in the playoff final. No one backed them in their pre-season predictions, and yet, under the guidance of the relatively unknown Sergej Jakirovic in his first season in charge, they defied the statistics.If matches in the Championship last season had been decided by expected goals, Hull would have finished second from bottom. The glaringly obvious problem was at the back. They conceded 66 goals, giving them the fourth worst defensive record in the Championship. Looking back at the last 15 teams to be promoted to the Premier League, only Southampton (who conceded 63 goals when they were promoted to the 2023-24 season) have come close to that tally and they went on to concede 86 goals in the top flight, finishing rock bottom with just 12 points.If that wasn’t bad enough, Hull were lucky to not concede more: opponents failed to convert 10 opportunities where they had at least a 50% chance of scoring according to xG – the most of any side in the league. Hull simply have to improve as fortune does not tend to stick around long when you’re in the Premier League.There are some reasons for optimism though. Their form against the top teams in away matches was impressive. They conceded just eight goals in their matches at the teams in the top 10; they did not concede in either of their games against Coventry; and they didn’t concede in any of their playoff matches.Jakirovic showed an impressive knack of switching tactics depending on who his side faced or how a game was evolving. His switch from their usual 4-2-3-1 formation to a back three with wing-backs in the second leg of their playoff tie against Millwall was perhaps the most telling example of this succeeding as they caught Millwall by surprise, winning 2-0 at the Den. If continuity is the key word in Coventry’s fight for survival then chaos seems to be Hull’s. You don’t really know what to expect from them. Striker Oli McBurnie pointed this out last season: “It’s probably hard to gameplan against us, because we play so many different ways against different teams.”As well as their unpredictability, this team has heart. They defied all expectations to reach the top, overcoming a relegation battle, a transfer embargo and statistical odds. Jakirovic put their success down to the bond they have forged. “It was like a puzzle,” he said. “Maybe it was the best that it happened like this. This group of players became even closer. They had to stick together and help each other.” As Robert Earnshaw, who played for Derby in their disastrous 2007-08 campaign, has warned: “You can relegate yourself based on how you think. It was almost as if everyone gave up. It was 20 games to go and it was like: ‘We’re never going to do it.’” This Hull side has fight and that should count for something.Two years ago Ipswich entered the Premier League as one of football’s feelgood stories. After 22 years away from the top flight, Kieran McKenna took them back to the top through back-to-back promotions, turning a squad largely built for League One into top-flight contenders. The 2023-24 campaign was fuelled by fearless, attacking football, late goals and a sense of togetherness, with Ipswich finishing second behind Leicester and becoming the first side in 12 years to climb from League One to the Premier League in successive seasons.McKenna’s side had an established core who had grown together and exceeded expectations but they were small fish in a very big pond, and the Premier League quickly exposed the gulf in quality. Ipswich won just four games, conceded 82 times and finished 19th with 22 points. Their immediate return to the top flight, fuelled by Premier League experience and parachute payments, means this is a very different promotion story – less about underdogs defying expectations and more about a club that is aiming to belong in this league.Their recruitment in 2024 suggested they had one eye on a return to the Championship. They brought in top Championship players who had potential but were not proven at the top: Omari Hutchinson, Jack Clarke, Liam Delap, Dara O’Shea and Jacob Greaves. The club’s CEO, Mark Ashton, says they have to be “a bit braver” this time around. Rather than focusing on potential, they want to sign battle-ready, established top-flight performers.Florentino Luís and Sasa Lukic bring the physicality and ball-winning presence the midfield lacked in 2024-25, while Issa Diop adds Premier League experience at the back. At the other end, with no Ipswich player scoring more than 10 non-penalty goals last season, Emersonn gives them a physically imposing striker, while Daizen Maeda and Abdul Fatawu add running power and intensity. Crucially, a lot of these players have Premier League experience and, with O’Shea, Clarke, Greaves and Jaden Philogene remaining from the season they went down, this is a side that looks more ambitious and ready to compete.Their defence also looks far more equipped for the top flight. They had the second best defensive record in the Championship last season, keeping 17 clean sheets and conceding just 47 goals (10 fewer goals than when they were promoted in 2023-24). This is not the chaotic and entertaining side that got them to the Premier League two years ago, but a more patient team that knows how to be pragmatic and aggressive.The biggest negative is the departure of the man who guided them back to the Premier League, with Kieran McKenna stepping away from football to take a break. Gary O’Neil, his replacement, has experienced Premier League relegation battles with Bournemouth and Wolves but it will be difficult to replace the identity, relationships and collective belief McKenna spent five years building through three promotions in four years, and 105 wins in 222 games. O’Neil is inheriting a more expensive and talented side than Ipswich had two years ago, but he will have to hit the ground running and help a host of new players to adapt quickly.